Bedford Minuteman
November 7, 2002

Letter: Projections - by the numbers

Over the past few weeks, letters to the editor have appeared criticizing the methodology used in the Hanscom Field draft Environmental Status and Planning Report (ESPR). For your readers benefit, I would like to explain the reasoning behind the corporate/business aircraft forecast and passenger number assumptions.

Recent letters have claimed that the corporate/business aircraft activity analysis is unrealistically low. The aviation forecasts are based on historic trends at Hanscom, FAA projected trends, and industry projections for the national general aviation market. Corporate aircraft activity is a subset of the aviation forecast and includes twin engine/turboprop aircraft and jets.

To account for the strong growth in corporate aircraft activity since Sept. 11, 2001, the ESPR moderate growth scenario assumes that the year 2002 corporate aircraft activity is 20 percent higher than the year 2000 activity and that normal growth continues into the future at the FAA forecast rate of 2 percent per year. The ESPR high growth scenario assumes that Hanscom's 2002 corporate aircraft operations are 40 percent higher than in the year 2000 and future operations grow at 3.4 percent annually, faster than the national forecast rate, yet consistent with the 3.7 percent growth in corporate aircraft activity at Hanscom between the years 1990 and 2000.

Writers are correct when they state that the ESPR commercial passenger numbers are based on "market-based" projections and not numbers picked out of a hat. These projections are based on Hanscom's catchment area, defined as towns within a 30-minute uncongested drive time radius that are closer to Hanscom than to other commercial service airports in the region. The Hanscom catchment area definition is supported by a survey of Hanscom passengers that was conducted in January 2002 which indicated that more than three-quarters of enplaning passengers had a ground access time of 30 minutes or less.

In order to develop a realistic passenger forecast, Massport relied on information from the 1999 Logan Air Passenger Survey. The Logan survey indicates that the cities and towns that fall within the Hanscom catchment area generated nearly five million Logan domestic air passengers in 2000. Based on Logan's forecast growth, the Hanscom catchment area is forecast to generate 5.8 million domestic passengers in the year 2005 and 6.8 million domestic passengers in the year 2015. For the purposes of the ESPR, it was assumed that approximately ten percent of the passengers in the Hanscom catchment area would utilize Hanscom if the service was available.

In regards to the roadway system, most intersections in the ESPR study area operate at the same levels of service regardless of the level of airport-related traffic growth. As described in the ESPR, Hanscom traffic represents a small portion of the total peak intersection traffic volumes and intersection improvements for many locations would be a benefit with or without any future growth at the airport.

In presentations to the local communities, Massport has carefully described the moderate and high range scenarios in a manner as to facilitate an understanding of the range of potential future environmental effects, and not as predictions. I hope I have clarified the assumptions in the Hanscom ESPR and encourage people to attend the MEPA hearing on November 7, at Bedford Town Hall. To learn more about Massport and Hanscom Field, please visit our Web site at www.massport.com.

Richard Walsh
Senior Community Representative
Massport

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