Mobility Study Warns of Gridlock, Pollution
Environmental News Service

CAMBRIDGE, Massachusetts, October 30, 2001 (ENS) - People's insatiable
appetite for mobility is heading the world's transportation systems toward
unsustainable gridlock and environmental degradation unless several grand
challenges are tackled, conclude Massachusetts Institute of Technology
researchers and colleagues in a report on worldwide mobility at the end of
the 20th century.

The MIT researchers warn that by 2015, greenhouse gas emissions from
transport in the developing world will exceed those in the industrialized
world unless manufacturers and municipalities can improve the fuel economy
of cars and trucks and curb traffic growth. Grand challenges to that end
include reinventing public transport and creating a portfolio of mobility
options for people and freight.

[Rush hour traffic in Atlanta, Georgia, one of the United States' smoggiest
cities (Photo courtesy Georgia Department of Transportation)]

"Transportation is essential for moving people and goods, but it also has a
broader role. It shapes our cities, stimulates economic growth and makes
possible societal interactions. Unfortunately, it also has harmful side
effects that must be looked at carefully and systematically," said Daniel
Roos, associate dean for engineering systems, director of the Engineering
Systems Division and one of three MIT project leaders.

The study, "Mobility 2001," was conducted by MIT and Charles River
Associates and is the first phase of a three year study commissioned by the
World Business Council for Sustainable Development (WBCSD). The goal of the
overall initiative is to develop a global vision of sustainable mobility for
2030 and possible pathways to get there.

The six month, million dollar first phase study was a joint effort of the
Laboratory for Energy and the Environment, and the Engineering Systems
Division. MIT researchers from 10 departments, laboratories and centers
collaborated to assess the current state of mobility and its impacts in a
holistic way.

Those involved drew on expertise gained in other ongoing studies that
consider mobility and global warming, transportation networks,
transportation technology for 2020 and mobility demand forecasts for 2050.

Eleven fuel and auto companies from the World Business Council for
Sustainable Development sponsored the study.

[Freight transportation using tractor-trailer rigs uses energy and produces
carbon emissions (Photo courtesy Mack Trucks Inc.)]

"We're fortunate to be collaborating with this group," said David Marks,
professor and director of the Laboratory for Energy and the Environment. "If
we're going to understand the major challenges and then plan and implement
change, it's critical that auto manufacturers and energy companies together
come up with ideas about how we can move toward sustainable mobility and
present those ideas to stakeholders."

The report considers both passenger and freight and all modes of transport
(ground, air and ocean). It looks at mobility's impact on economic
development, social welfare and environmental quality.

The study considers both developed and developing countries, incorporating
information gathered at stakeholder meetings with environmentalists,
governments, researchers, students and consumer groups around the world.

"Other studies of mobility tend to focus on only part of the problem - one
country or one mode of transport, for example," said John Heywood, the Sun
Jae Professor of Mechanical Engineering and director of the Sloan Automotive
Laboratory. "We've attempted to make this study both broad and
comprehensive."

TOO MANY CARS, TOO FEW ROADS

The assessment paints a sobering picture of trends in automobile travel. In
the developed world, the auto is the main provider of mobility in virtually
all urban areas.

[Fuel efficient new buses could run on soybean based fuel, known as
biodiesel
(Photo courtesy National Renewable Energy Laboratory)]

Urban sprawl is increasing as the affluent move to the suburbs, where low
population densities make public transport difficult. New highways can not
be built fast enough to keep up with the increasing traffic, largely due to
concerns about associated environmental and social disruption.
In the developing world, rapid population growth, urbanization and the
startup of suburbanization are making conditions worse. Increasing
prosperity has led to an increase in the number of private vehicles.

Rapidly growing megacities have little time or money to build public
transport systems or to expand roads to handle the new traffic. The result
is serious congestion, economic and environmental damage, and major safety
problems. Energy use and associated emissions are skyrocketing, in part due
to the use of older cars and dirtier fuels.

ENVIRONMENTAL AND FUEL CONCERNS

Analyses of the environmental impacts of our mobility systems generally
focus on greenhouse gas emissions and climate change. But building and using
roads, bridges, airports and harbors also degrade local and regional
ecosystems, damage natural habitats and kill off species, leading to loss of
biodiversity.

[Air transport is responsible for eight to 12 percent of transportation
related carbon emissions (Photo courtesy UK web online)]

These impacts may be more damaging in the long term than generally
recognized.

The environmental impacts of airplanes in flight are also often
underestimated. Air transport is responsible for eight to 12 percent of
transportation related carbon emissions. But because the carbon is emitted
at high altitude, its potential impact on global warming is twice as great
as that of carbon emitted at ground level.

Freight transportation systems are also an unexpectedly large source of
carbon emissions. Current freight transportation is relatively energy
efficient, but it uses about 43 percent of all transportation energy.

[Trains leave a smaller environmental footprint and are more fuel efficient
compared to other modes of transport (Photo courtesy Railway Association of
Canada)]

The need to transport goods over longer distances is increasing, and the
ongoing competition for road space between freight and passenger traffic is
a growing global problem. Transportation of goods over long distances is
already fairly efficient, but the last few miles of delivery - for example,
from supermarkets to homes - is not.

Another concern is that more than 96 percent of the world's transportation
depends on petroleum. Petroleum yields high energy density fuels that will
be hard to beat. Petroleum burning vehicles are becoming more fuel efficient
and cleaner, but thus far those improvements have been offset by factors
such as growth in the vehicle fleet, increased driving, and use of larger
and faster vehicles.

THE GRAND CHALLENGES

In summarizing their findings, the researchers identified the following set
of grand challenges that, if successfully addressed, would dramatically
improve the sustainability of mobility.

Ensure that transport systems serve essential human needs, enhance the
quality of life and support economic development.

Adapt vehicles to evolving requirements on air pollutant emissions, vehicle
load carrying capacity, amount of fuel use and ownership structure.

Reinvent public transport to provide mobility to those who don't have access
to cars and a reasonable alternative for those who do.

Reinvent the process of planning, developing and managing mobility
infrastructure.

Reduce carbon dioxide emissions.

Resolve the competition for use of infrastructure between personal and
freight transportation.

Tackle congestion by developing a portfolio of mobility options for people
and freight.

Technological change can play a major role in addressing most of these
challenges, the researchers said. But there is one more overarching
challenge, the team said - to create the institutional capability and
political will needed to tackle such complex, long term issues.

[U.S. studies show that vehicle emissions now account for 75 percent of the
carbon monoxide, 33 percent of the carbon dioxide, and 44 percent of the
nitrogen oxides in the urban air (All photos courtesy National Renewable
Energy Laboratory)]

The Sustainable Mobility Project team will now move to its next phase:
devising strategies aimed at making mobility sustainable over the coming
decades.

The "Mobility 2001" report is available at: http://lfee.mit.edu/

© Copyright 2001, Lycos, Inc.
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