Bedford Minuteman
Thursday, October 3, 2002

Hanscom-based traffic likely to increase, but how much?

By Barbara Forster / Correspondent

Traffic, traffic everywhere - at least around Hanscom Air Field - and what is ahead was the issue on Wednesday, Sept. 25 in Bedford Town Hall as Massport presented findings from recently collected data.

The overall conclusion - that traffic will increase - was derived from discussing various issues such as the source of the traffic, how much there will be, and when it will most likely occur.

According to the analysis, Hanscom Field generates approximately 2,800 vehicular trips per days. That traffic currently represents 3 to 4 percent (71-72 cars) of peak hour traffic on Route 2A and 13 percent (135-160 cars) on Hanscom Drive. Hanscom-related peak hour traffic has increased since 1996 and, if Massport's forecasts are correct, could range from 5 to 7 percent in the morning and 8 to 15 percent in afternoon drive time.

The figures are higher on Hanscom Drive.

In 2002, Hanscom Field makes up only 12 percent of the traffic volumes during morning peak hours and 13 percent in the afternoon. The rest belongs to the Air Force base and other entities that use Virginia Road. Down the road, those figures could range from 16 to 31 percent.

Employees of various aviation related businesses at the field and students at East Coast Aero Tech are among those in the cars.

The report also includes scenarios that account for specific non-Hanscom projects and assume a 1 percent annual growth in background traffic.

-- What Is Peak?

In the study, peak hours are between 7:45 and 8:45 a.m. and 5 to 6 p.m. - the same time spans used in the 1995 environmental study.

Forrest Lindwall, executive vice president of Reading-based Mistry Associates, Inc. who is working with the towns, questioned the delineation of that time frame.

"In the real world, peak hour is expanding," he said. "There is less differential in the hour before and after peak."

However, Massport's consultant, Joe Beggan, project manager for Rizzo Associates, Inc. of Framingham, later stated that peak hours were established by the data. Congestion might last for longer periods but "peak occurs when the intersection is most stressed."

The story at various intersections around the field is similar. Of the 14 intersections studied, conditions at three were evaluated because Hanscom Field-related traffic exceeds 10 percent of the activity. Ten percent is the magic number that requires analysis.

Two intersections operate at what is considered far less than optimum conditions - Level of Service D or better - while the intersection at Hanscom Drive and Route 2A gets the lowest ranking, F, during morning drive.

Although the study concludes that while Hanscom-related traffic could increase if aviation activity increases, the amount would "represent only a small portion of the total increase in intersection traffic volumes."

Nevertheless, the level of service at several intersections changes.

In study year 2005 - for the highest forecast only - the Hanscom Drive/Route 2A corner drops to F. Ten years later, three intersections could be have an F rating: Hanscom Drive/Route 2A in Lincoln and Old Bedford Road intersections with Lexington Road (Route 2A) and Virginia Road in Concord. Hanscom Drive and Old Bedford Road would slip to D.

Level of Service, which means the quality of the traffic flow on a roadway at a particular point in time, is reported on a scale of A to F, with A representing the best operating conditions and F the worst.

Massport included 14 intersections in the analysis. The agency studied 13 during the last go-round but the state environmental agency asked Massport to do more.

-- Among the Missing

What's not in the report generated questions, too. For example, accident/safety data was not analyzed.

"The secretary chose not to include that as part of the scope," said Tom Ennis of Massport.

Also missing, noted Lindwall, is in-depth discussion of Massport's plans to work with its neighbors, such as the Air Force, on Transportation Demand Management programs - ways to reduce the number of cars on the roadways. According to Ennis, joint meetings with the Army Corps of Engineers, area office parks, and the Air Force started last year but stopped after Sept. 11.

"We're not sure how to move forward," he added.

In the report Massport states that "to be successful, any traffic management programs must be regional in scope and include major employers and the National Park Service."

"We don't have enough people to do our own TDM," said Ennis.

Massport¹s analysis of traffic and other subjects is based on four different scenarios representing the overall amount of possible future aviation activity. In the years analyzed, 2005 and 2015, each year has moderate and high growth forecasts. Aviation activity includes flight training, corporate jets, military, helicopter flights, and commercial planes.

In 2005, the scenario has 231,004 to 246,078 total aviation operations. For 2015 the estimates are 272,461 to 295,828.

In 2000, the total was 212,781; last year the number was 205,436.

The forecasts are for the Environmental Status and Planning Report that Massport is required to file every five years with MEPA, the state agency responsible for administering the Environmental Protection Act. Massport forecasts the amount of aviation activity at the field and then analyzes the effects on various environmental, historical, and cultural factors in the area.

The last two workshops are mitigation on Saturday, Oct. 5, and air quality on Wednesday, Oct. 9. The workshop format allows Massport consultants time to present information. The towns' environmental gurus ask questions and then the public speaks.

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