Lincoln Journal
Thursday, September 19, 2002

Up to 246,000 flights predicted at Hanscom in '05

By Barbara Forster / Correspondent

Attendance at the first workshop for the environmental study at Hanscom Air Field in Bedford Town Hall on Sept. 12 was less than overwhelming. Barely a half dozen residents from the four Hanscom communities turned out for the discussion on the amount of aviation activity Massport is forecasting for the air field in the years 2005 and 2015.

Activity was classified in both moderate and high categories for each of the two study years. Activities include flight training, corporate jets, military, helicopter flights, and commercial planes.

In 2005, the numbers of predicted operations run from 231,004 to 246,078. For 2015 Massport predicts 272,461 to 295,828.

In 2000, the number was 212,781; the number last year was 205,436.

The workshops are in conjunction with the Environmental Status and Planning Report Massport is required to file every five years with MEPA, the state agency responsible for administering the Environmental Protection Act. Massport forecasts the amount of aviation activity at the field and then analyzes the effects on various environmental, historical, and cultural factors in the area.

General aviation is projected to remain the single largest category of aviation activity at the field. Within that category jet flights represent the biggest chunk of projected growth: 28,141 to 36,114 in 2005 and in 2015, 36,620 to 54,961.

In 2000, 20,226 jets flew in and out of Hanscom. Last year the figure was 22,839. Calculations for the jet category include figures from 2000 and 2001 but not from 2002. Jet activity has steadily increased in recent months. In April and May this year, for example, jet operations were up 55.4 and 63.6 percent respectively.

Commercial Service

The study concludes that Hanscom's future role in the commercial arena is limited.

First, Logan and Hanscom share the same market but most people want more than Hanscom offers. Logan offers more services and nearby T.F. Green, and Manchester have developed low-cost fare options.

Nevertheless, forecasted growth on the passenger side involves six-digit numbers. In the moderate growth scenario in 2005 the number of annual passengers is 330,200; in the same scenario 10 years later the figure is 488,600. High growth scenario numbers are 503,700 in 2005 and 659,900 in 2015.

In 2000, Shuttle America moved 162,000 passengers 6,600 flights. The projected figures are based on 49 to 64 daily operations in 2005 and 68 to 84 in 2015. Each operation would be on 50-seater planes.

Massport consultant Beverly Jones, director International Air Transport for Cambridge-based Simat, Helliesen & Eichner, Inc., explained the choice of planes was based on current use.

"Fifty-seaters are the ones being used now (by regional carriers) or they are the ones being added to fleets," she said.

Massport arrived at the projected number of flight operations by answering the question: What would happen if Logan-bound passengers from within a 30-minute radius of Hanscom traveling on flights of fewer than 800 miles used Hanscom?

Cargo flights

In addition to forecasting general aviation and commercial activity, the study looks at regularly scheduled cargo flights: a minimum of two and a maximum of four in 2005; four and six in 2015.

Cargo operations are already at the field but as on demand services. According to Massport's Tom Ennis, cargo was included because the agency has been approached by operators in recent years. The last inquiry, acknowledged Richard Walsh of Massport was about two years ago.

The issue was not included in the 1995 report, explained Ennis.

"At that time we didn't foresee cargo growth and we were asked not to analyze it," he said.

Since then economic development in the 128-495 corridor has grown dramatically.

"As business grows they want to be served by package handlers," he added.

When flights arrived was of particular interest inasmuch as the forecast includes at least two daily arrivals before 6 a.m.

Whether Massport can keep scheduled cargo operators away from Hanscom is, however, questionable, explained John Silva, environmental program manager with the Federal Aviation Administration New England Region.

"The official answer is 'No' because Massport signed grant assurances to operate the airport in a non-discriminatory manner," he said. "But they could do it indirectly by not providing facilities."

Six more workshops are in the schedule: infrastructure and facilities/airport planning (Wednesday, Sept. 18), ground transportation (Wednesday, Sept. 25), noise/cultural and historical resources (Saturday, Sept. 28), wetlands/wildlife/water resources (Wednesday, Oct. 3), mitigation (Saturday, Oct. 5), and air quality (Wednesday, Oct. 9). The workshop format will be the same throughout the meetings: Massport's consultants do a presentation, the towns' environmental gurus ask questions, and then the public speaks.

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